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Undeveluped theory about shidduchim and f/m demographics
Nechama
post Aug 7 2008, 02:46 PM
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I had a random idea/theory that I wanted to think through and hear thoughts about.
There is a lot of buzz about their being more women than men in shidduchim. Some point to the difference between being a "top guy" vs a "top girl". Others have interesting math the points to the age spread between couples. Other point to the 49/51 gender split birth ratio.

I never was really satisfied with the above idea that there are physically more women around than men. And then I had a thought.
Is it possible that more girls are born that boys in the Jewish community on an overall scale, due to halachic concerns about having son(s) in family planning?

For an extreme/basic example, a family with 3 sons might "call it quits", whereas a family with 3 daughters might be inclined/would be pushed towards to keep trying hoping the next one would be a boy.


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outspoken
post Aug 7 2008, 02:51 PM
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QUOTE (Nechama @ Aug 7 2008, 03:46 PM) *
I had a random idea/theory that I wanted to think through and hear thoughts about.
There is a lot of buzz about their being more women than men in shidduchim. Some point to the difference between being a "top guy" vs a "top girl". Others have interesting math the points to the age spread between couples. Other point to the 49/51 gender split birth ratio.

I never was really satisfied with the above idea that there are physically more women around than men. And then I had a thought.
Is it possible that more girls are born that boys in the Jewish community on an overall scale, due to halachic concerns about having son(s) in family planning?

For an extreme/basic example, a family with 3 sons might "call it quits", whereas a family with 3 daughters might be inclined/would be pushed towards to keep trying hoping the next one would be a boy.

my mother had 5 boys becuase she wanted a girl. . . I'm sorry I dissapointed her. sad.gif

althogh I just realized that niddah actualy helps you have boys a littlebit. Not alot but a little.


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FYI
post Aug 7 2008, 02:59 PM
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QUOTE (Nechama @ Aug 7 2008, 02:46 PM) *
Is it possible that more girls are born that boys in the Jewish community on an overall scale, due to halachic concerns about having son(s) in family planning?

For an extreme/basic example, a family with 3 sons might "call it quits", whereas a family with 3 daughters might be inclined/would be pushed towards to keep trying hoping the next one would be a boy.

Doesn't the basic mitzvah of pru ur'vu consist of 1 male and 1 female?

QUOTE (outspoken @ Aug 7 2008, 02:51 PM) *
althogh I just realized that niddah actualy helps you have boys a littlebit. Not alot but a little.

What?!?!


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Mimi
post Aug 7 2008, 03:00 PM
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Halachically you need to have a boy and a girl in order to have fulfilled the mitzvah, so I don't think the example of three boys and no girls really applies. Maybe three boys and one girl vs. three girls and one boy? Still sounds strange to me though.
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outspoken
post Aug 7 2008, 03:02 PM
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QUOTE (FYI @ Aug 7 2008, 03:59 PM) *
What?!?!

yes actualy. what, did you think it was totaly random if you have a boy or a girl?

A X and Y sperm don't travel at the same speed, Y sperm are more lively and also less hardy, so therefore die faster in the highly hostile enviornment of the uterous. This means that if you are intimate before ovulation you're more likely to have a girl (cause the Y sperm might die first and the X sperm can catch up) and if you do so after wards you're more likely to have a boy (cause the Y sperm sprint ahead of the Xs)


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Moshi
post Aug 7 2008, 03:05 PM
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Is it true that there are more Orthodox women than men? What's the source for that?

Anyway this shidduch crisis business is a bunch of self-manufactured b.s. The day people stop having ridiculous criteria and expectations is the day this crisis goes away.


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krumlikeapretzel
post Aug 7 2008, 03:05 PM
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QUOTE (Nechama @ Aug 7 2008, 02:46 PM) *
Is it possible that more girls are born that boys in the Jewish community on an overall scale, due to halachic concerns about having son(s) in family planning?

For an extreme/basic example, a family with 3 sons might "call it quits", whereas a family with 3 daughters might be inclined/would be pushed towards to keep trying hoping the next one would be a boy.
It makes absolutely no difference. Every time a child is born there is the same possibility of it being a boy or a girl, so the overall population will follow this trend; the larger the population the more closely it will follow the probabilities.
So basically your theory is a fallacy. (sorry cray.gif )
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outspoken
post Aug 7 2008, 03:06 PM
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QUOTE (krumlikeapretzel @ Aug 7 2008, 04:05 PM) *
It makes absolutely no difference. Every time a child is born there is the same possibility of it being a boy or a girl, so the overall population will follow this trend; the larger the population the more closely it will follow the probabilities.
So basically your theory is a fallacy. (sorry cray.gif )

actualy this isn't true. More boys are born than girls, but more boys die than boys, so therefore by the time the population gets to be of marriagable age there are more girls than boys.


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krumlikeapretzel
post Aug 7 2008, 03:09 PM
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QUOTE (Moshi @ Aug 7 2008, 03:05 PM) *
Is it true that there are more Orthodox women than men? What's the source for that?
Most human populations have a larger population of women than men as a result in the difference in life expectancy (women live longer than men). Ironically there are slightly more male than female children born...

QUOTE (outspoken @ Aug 7 2008, 03:06 PM) *
actualy this isn't true. More boys are born than girls, but more boys die than boys, so therefore by the time the population gets to be of marriagable age there are more girls than boys.
Yes, but the idea of families always trying to have a boy causing a greater number of girls is a fallacy.
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Nechama
post Aug 7 2008, 03:10 PM
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QUOTE (Moshi @ Aug 7 2008, 04:05 PM) *
Is it true that there are more Orthodox women than men? What's the source for that?

What! Letters to the Yated and Jewish press are not sources?


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Nechama
post Aug 7 2008, 03:13 PM
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QUOTE (krumlikeapretzel @ Aug 7 2008, 04:05 PM) *
It makes absolutely no difference. Every time a child is born there is the same possibility of it being a boy or a girl, so the overall population will follow this trend; the larger the population the more closely it will follow the probabilities.
So basically your theory is a fallacy. (sorry cray.gif )

That makes sense.


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krumlikeapretzel
post Aug 7 2008, 03:14 PM
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QUOTE (Nechama @ Aug 7 2008, 03:10 PM) *
What! Letters to the Yated
Letters "in" the Yated would be more accurate. (Most of them originate within the Yated...)
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Savannah
post Aug 7 2008, 03:17 PM
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QUOTE (Nechama @ Aug 7 2008, 03:46 PM) *
For an extreme/basic example, a family with 3 sons might "call it quits", whereas a family with 3 daughters might be inclined/would be pushed towards to keep trying hoping the next one would be a boy.

I don't know of any families that have three boys, but I know quite a few that have three girls. I would be curious if other people have similar anecdotal experience.
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int
post Aug 7 2008, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE (krumlikeapretzel @ Aug 7 2008, 04:14 PM) *
Letters "in" the Yated would be more accurate. (Most of them originate within the Yated...)


For most people who read it, it suits them. Apparently.


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chaimsmom
post Aug 7 2008, 03:25 PM
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QUOTE (Goldfish @ Aug 7 2008, 03:17 PM) *
I don't know of any families that have three boys, but I know quite a few that have three girls. I would be curious if other people have similar anecdotal experience.

I don't know of any families that have three girls, but I do know many that have three boys. So much for anecdotal evidence. dry.gif
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p_almonius
post Aug 7 2008, 03:37 PM
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QUOTE (Nechama @ Aug 7 2008, 10:46 PM) *
For an extreme/basic example, a family with 3 sons might "call it quits", whereas a family with 3 daughters might be inclined/would be pushed towards to keep trying hoping the next one would be a boy.

Are heterim for birth control given when the reason is "calling it quits"?


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Nechama
post Aug 7 2008, 03:42 PM
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