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Stock Of The Month
the Real Adiel
post Dec 1 2004, 04:59 PM
Post #1


The REAL Adiel
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Here are the rules:

1) A pick must be posted after closing in the first few days of every month.

2) The following information must be included with the ticker
.......1) Closing Price
.......2) Target Price
.......3) Target Date

3) Target date must be no longer then 12 months

4) If a stock reaches the target date before the target price the ticket is closed.

When posting a new pick, please update previous picks performance. For example:

MSFT 28.50 -3.1%
MO 62.50 +12.3%
GTWY 12.00 "Closed" +28% (annualized +58%)
EBAY 90.00 "Closed" -2% (annualized -4%)

Let's make some money!


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the Real Adiel
post Dec 1 2004, 05:06 PM
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December Pick

PLCE

Closing Price: 31.48
Target Price: 39.00
Target Date: 12/01/05
318 shares


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the Real Adiel
post Jan 5 2005, 08:32 AM
Post #3


The REAL Adiel
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January Pick

NXTI

Closing Price: 1.45
Target Price: 2.05
Target Date: 01/01/06
6896 shares = $9,999.20

Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
Current Price: 35.10
+11.5%
318 shares = $11,161.80


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investor relatio...
post Jan 5 2005, 01:49 PM
Post #4


Rebbe
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I am a firm non-beleiver in target prices and target dates and the like. They are predictions based little on the long term fundamentals and prospects of the companies. A little anecdote, I was going through some of my picks one of which being CDIC and I was reading some of the brokers predictions on the price etc..
One loony tune said he loved the stock and the product yadda yadda yadda and he put the price target at $22.00 a share! The year was 2001 I beleive, and the stock never got over $7.00. You can estimate performance in a general way long term, but to make predictions on the price and when it is going to happen is a joke in my opinion.


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the Real Adiel
post Jan 5 2005, 02:18 PM
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The REAL Adiel
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QUOTE (investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 01:49 PM)
I am a firm non-beleiver in target prices and target dates and the like. They are predictions based little on the long term fundamentals and prospects of the companies. A little anecdote, I was going through some of my picks one of which being CDIC and I was reading some of the brokers predictions on the price etc..
One loony tune said he loved the stock and the product yadda yadda yadda and he put the price target at $22.00 a share! The year was 2001 I beleive, and the stock never got over $7.00. You can estimate performance in a general way long term, but to make predictions on the price and when it is going to happen is a joke in my opinion.
*


Why would you say that? If I believe in the fundamentals of a company you can figure out the value and estimate what the price the stock will be in a year because of your knowledge. It's also a transparent way to document your skill at stock picking.


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post Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM
Post #6


Rebbe
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In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.


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the Real Adiel
post Jan 5 2005, 03:34 PM
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The REAL Adiel
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QUOTE (investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM)
In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.
*


Exactly! You can see who is good and who isn't


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Pure Myrrh
post Jan 5 2005, 03:36 PM
Post #8


Newbie Emeritus
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QUOTE (investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM)
In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.
*

Stock analysts are like shadchanim.


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post Jan 5 2005, 03:52 PM
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Rebbe
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QUOTE (the Real Adiel @ Jan 5 2005, 03:34 PM)
QUOTE (investor relations @ Jan 5 2005, 02:23 PM)
In theory it should work, using the fair value approach. However if you look at all the brokerage houses predictions for the stocks they research it is down right comical how off they are.
*


Exactly! You can see who is good and who isn't
*


Nobody is right more than 50% of the time. Some times they guess right sometimes they guess wrong. Almost like technical analysis. (For long term anyway)


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It doesnt matter who you vote for, the Government will still get in.
-Some guy in Forbes magazine


stockwhiz blog


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the Real Adiel
post Jan 6 2005, 09:16 AM
Post #10


The REAL Adiel
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QUOTE
Nobody is right more than 50% of the time


Couldn't disagree with you more. Over the next year I will have 12 picks I will wager 8 of them will hit my target (which is almost always a minimum 20% gain).


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post Jan 6 2005, 12:08 PM
Post #11


Rebbe
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QUOTE (the Real Adiel @ Jan 6 2005, 09:16 AM)
QUOTE
Nobody is right more than 50% of the time


Couldn't disagree with you more. Over the next year I will have 12 picks I will wager 8 of them will hit my target (which is almost always a minimum 20% gain).
*


Just to make my self a little clearer. there is no way someone could be correct ON HIS PRICE TARGET AND DATE more than 50% of the time.


--------------------
It doesnt matter who you vote for, the Government will still get in.
-Some guy in Forbes magazine


stockwhiz blog


America, land of the free after a mail-in rebate
-Ctownbochur.com
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the Real Adiel
post Jan 6 2005, 02:59 PM
Post #12


The REAL Adiel
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QUOTE (investor relations @ Jan 6 2005, 12:08 PM)
QUOTE (the Real Adiel @ Jan 6 2005, 09:16 AM)
QUOTE
Nobody is right more than 50% of the time


Couldn't disagree with you more. Over the next year I will have 12 picks I will wager 8 of them will hit my target (which is almost always a minimum 20% gain).
*


Just to make my self a little clearer. there is no way someone could be correct ON HIS PRICE TARGET AND DATE more than 50% of the time.
*



The date doesn't mean it's going to hit the target price on that date, it means that it will hit the target on or before the date.


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the Real Adiel
post Feb 1 2005, 01:58 PM
Post #13


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February Pick

OSIS

Closing Price $16.34
Target Price: $21.00
Target Date: 02/01/06

612 shares = $10,000


Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.60
Target Price: 2.05
+10%
6896 shares = $11,033.60

Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
Current Price: 37.94
Target Price: 39.00
+18.5%
318 shares = $12,064.92


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int
post Feb 1 2005, 02:31 PM
Post #14


Godol Hador
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QUOTE (the Real Adiel @ Feb 1 2005, 01:58 PM)
February Pick

OSIS

Closing Price $16.34
Target Price: $21.00
Target Date: 02/01/06


Jan Pick update:
NXTI bought: 1.45
Current Price: 1.60
Target Price: 2.05
+10%

Dec Pick update:
PLCE bought: 31.48
Current Price: 37.94
Target Price: 39.00
+18.5%
*


So Real Adiel - are you making like wagon loads of money based on your picks?


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hafle
post Feb 1 2005, 07:40 PM
Post #15


Gabbai
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Does anyone understand this?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gru
I know pople who made serious money off this.
I don't understand how it is flying up so fast.

I have a gut feeling it's some israeli scam.


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the Real Adiel
post Feb 1 2005, 10:35 PM
Post #16


The REAL Adiel
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I doubt the company is a scam, I know someone who interviewed there 4 years ago. They have been around a while and the last I remember they had a little search bar that floated on your screen. I'm not sure what they are up to now.

How they will make money is beyond me. Unless your huge, you can't make real money on advertising.

Whats with all the hype stocks you pick, the last one was also a garbage stock.


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the Real Adiel